Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation

The debate on unintended consequences of sanctions, such as their adverse effects on human rights, public health, or the economy beyond intended sectors in the target state, has become increasingly popular over the last couple of decades. Interestingly, however, this debate has mostly overlooked the transnational aspects of these unintended consequences. This study examines one such aspect, namely the economic spillover of sanctions to neighboring countries. Our global vector autoregression oil and inventory model (GOVAR) simulations on Indonesia, a medium-level oil producer, indicate sanctions may spill over to its neighbors’ domestic economy. The risk and nature of spillover varies with respect to the type of sanctions employed, timing of sanctions, and the macroeconomic indicator in the neighboring state in question. Equity markets appear especially susceptible to a contagion effect. Understanding how a sanction spills over to neighboring states can help sender states design sanctions that minimize regional disruptions.</p

Optimizing Crude Oil Sales from Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Asia

A joint oil stockpiling facility no more than 3 days sailing from its key markets would be ideally positioned as a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for net importing nations during times of crisis and tight markets. At other times, the facility would have additional value in its capacity to provide an excellent central location for the sale of spot crude for a crude oil marketing company or major producing company. At the same time, the sale of crude oil options to Asian markets can provide a secure and reliable source of supply during times of volatility and enhance a major producing company’s market share in the region. Spot crude oil and product sales from a joint oil stockpiling facility would be able reach tight markets in a few days, and in fact would be available for pick-up in variable quantities that are appropriate for specific market disruptions. As a result, the sale of spot crude oil spread options would have the potential to address sporadic and unanticipated increases in demand without adding undue downward pressure to regional oil prices. The case study develops a model to price the sale of crude oil spread options to China from a hypothetical joint oil stockpiling facility in Northeast Asia over a 15-year period from 2016 to 2030

Delicious ambiguity? Organizational, interpersonal, and personal communication about spirituality at Hospice

While a great deal of theoretical work affirms the importance of spirituality in hospice care, the manner in which organizational members communicate about spirituality in hospice organizations, and most other health care organizations, remains under-explored and under-theorized. The purpose of this dissertation is twofold. First, this dissertation seeks to understand how hospice members talk about spirituality with one another and with care recipients. Second, this dissertation explores the antecedents and consequences of hospice members' communication strategies. To explore these issues, an ethnographic study was conducted in two branches of a mid-sized hospice. Over 200 hours of participant observation and 42 interviews were completed. Results showed that organizational discourse about spirituality was strategically ambiguous in response to multiple internal and external demands. Strategically ambiguous communication was successful in allowing for a wide range of actions and interpretations; however, it was also problematic in that it served as a source of discomfort and disconnection for some organizational members. Further, results demonstrated that communication about spirituality in interactions between care providers and care recipients was influenced by both organizational discourse and personal understandings of spirituality. Organizational and professional discourse and personal understandings created dialectical tensions between leading and following in care provider-care recipient interactions. Further analysis demonstrated five different strategies for managing the leading-following dialectic. Finally, results suggested that organizational discourses affected the personal identity and outcomes experienced by hospice workers. The preferred organizational identity of the "Gracious Servant" required hospice workers to perform spiritual labor which increased the care providers' propensity to experience stress and burnout. In total, these results demonstrate the importance of examining spirituality from an ecological perspective that considers community, organizational, and interpersonal discourse about spirituality

The effects of a shock to critical minerals prices on the world oil price and inflation

Critical minerals (CMs) such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential to the development of clean energy technologies, electronics, and defense and space industries, among others. Demand for these minerals is expected to grow quickly as energy transitions accelerate. As the post-pandemic economic recovery demonstrated, disturbances in CM supplies can also create serious bottlenecks in global supply-chains. In this study, we develop a GVAR model that can examine the consequences of market disturbances from CM price shocks on major global and country-specific macroeconomic indicators. Counterfactual simulations of a CM price shock suggest that that CMs, as a rising industry, are starting to have an impact on the macro level. The industry and its impacts are not fully developed yet but appear to have diverse implications across countries similar in some respects to the current major commodity – oil. A CM price shock has statistically significant implications for inflation in the UK and South Korea. At the same time, geopolitical shocks to crude oil prices have significant implications for CM prices. The cross-price elasticity of oil with respect to CM prices is positive in the United States, where CM's and oil are substitutes, and negative for Saudi Arabia where CMs and oil are compliments. These scenarios indicate the unsuitability of a one size fits all energy policy and a need for closer examination of the national and country specific relationships between the oil and CM sectors.</p

The impact of global trade disruptions on world oil markets

Our model simulations suggest three critical insights: 1. Despite a significant fall in global GDP, the price of Brent crude will fall only slightly. 2. Almost all oil producing countries see a significant cut to their oil production relative to their baseline, while the U.S. sees an increase. Saudi Arabia emerges as the swing producer, absorbing a significant portion of this production cut. 3. The trade war will lead to backwardation in the price of Brent, which is expected to fall slightly in the year following a negative shock to global GDP due to global trade disruptions, falling further in the second year of the disruption (2020). In anticipation of this, a. oil exporters will release a larger part of their inventories onto the market in early 2020,followed by a smaller amount in early 2021; b. oil importers will increase their oil purchases in 2021, capitalizing on lower oil prices

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“Who am I to bring diversity into the classroom?” Learning communities wrestle with creating inclusive college classrooms

This study explored the experiences of gateway course instructors during the implementation of pedagogical changes aimed at improving the success of diverse students. A detailed case study was built through analysis of peer observations, focus groups, oral and written reflections, student grades, in-depth interviews, and pre and post student surveys. Results showed that instructors faced three major challenges in implementing pedagogical changes: pragmatic challenges, student-centered challenges, and challenges to instructor self-concept. Embracing a learning paradigm and participating in a learning community helped instructors to manage these challenges and create more inclusive learning environments for students

Pilot Programs for Veterans Transition To Engineering Fields

Veterans, through their active service, frequently receive training in highly skilled technical areas. However, they may lack a theoretical background in underlying engineering principles. They also need additional support with the transition from a highly structured military environment to an environment with more ambiguous time constraints and different sorts of responsibilities. Moreover they are facing challenges which are specific for their student population. Therefore, enabling multiple mechanisms which would support them and provide them necessary guidance are especially important at universities with large veteran populations such as at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Hence, there is a need for programs which build on the specialized training that veterans received and aid in their academic journey. This paper will introduce three pilot programs for advancing engineering education for military veterans focusing on forming a support base for veterans to assist them in overcoming traditional educational barriers

Prioritising Responses Of Nurses To deteriorating patient Observations (PRONTO) protocol: Testing the effectiveness of a facilitation intervention in a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial with an embedded process evaluation and cost analysis

Background Vital signs are the primary indicator of physiological status and for determining the need for urgent clinical treatment. Yet, if physiological signs of deterioration are missed, misinterpreted or mismanaged, then critical illness, unplanned intensive care admissions, cardiac arrest and death may ensue. Although evidence demonstrates the benefit of early recognition and management of deteriorating patients, failure to escalate care and manage deteriorating patients remains a relatively frequent occurrence in hospitals. Methods/design A pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial design will be used to measure clinical effectiveness and cost of a facilitation intervention to improve nurses’ vital sign measurement, interpretation, treatment and escalation of care for patients with abnormal vital signs. A cost consequence analysis will evaluate the intervention cost and effectiveness, and a process evaluation will determine how the implementation of the intervention contributes to outcomes. We will compare clinical outcomes and costs from standard implementation of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) to facilitated implementation of CPGs. The primary outcome will be adherence to the CPGs by nurses, as measured by escalation of care as per organisational policy. The study will be conducted in four Australian major metropolitan teaching hospitals. In each hospital, eight to ten wards will be randomly allocated to intervention and control groups. Control wards will receive standard implementation of CPGs, while intervention wards will receive standard CPG implementation plus facilitation, using facilitation methods and processes tailored to the ward context. The intervention will be administered to all nursing staff at the ward level for 6 months. At each hospital, two types of facilitators will be provided: a hospital-level facilitator as the lead; and two ward-level facilitators for each ward. Discussion This study uses an innovative, networked approach to facilitation to enable uptake of CPGs. Findings will inform the intervention utility and knowledge translation measurement approaches. If successful, the study methodology and intervention has potential for translation to other health care standards.The trial is funded by a National Health and Medical Research Council Partnership Project Grant ID 1114545. Partner Organisation funding was received from Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care, SA Health, Alfred Health, Eastern Health and Monash Health